September 28th, 2005

There have been numerous comments made regarding Peyton Manning and his effect on your fantasy football team. Mainly these comments have been made to imply that Peyton somehow won the championship single-handedly for Matt First. I think this is ridiculous and here is why. First of all, Matt First deserves credit for his league championship for a few reasons. Matt had a solid team. Aside from the number 1 fantasy QB for 2004 First also sported the #1 Kicker in Vinatieri, #4 TE in Crumpler, 2 top 14 RBs-Dillon at 6 and Dunn at 14, and along with those players he held 5 of the top 19 WRs, Walker at #4(2 points shy of the #2 WR), Driver #10, Stokley #12, Smith #17, and Bruce #19. It is because of his depth and his role players that Matt First won last year's championship.

Still think it was all Manning? Well let’s look at what he did during the 17 weeks.

• Week 1 - First wins by 6 manning has 17, 12 from the QB still gets a win.
• Week 2 - First loses by 30 manning has 18.
• Week 3 - wins by 26 manning with 39.
• Week 4 - wins by 7 manning has 17.
• Week 5 - ties with manning having 20 points.
• Week 6 - wins by 10 manning has a bye.
• Week 7 - wins by 11 manning has 27.
• Week 8 - wins by 42 manning has 39.
• Week 9 - wins by 54 manning has 31.
• Week 10 - wins by 37 manning has 34.
• Week 11 - loses by 2 manning has 27.
• Week 12 - wins by 46 manning has 41.
• Week 13 - wins by 5 manning has 22.
• Week 14 - wins by 11 manning has 19.
• Week 15 - loses by 10 manning has 12.
• Week 16 - wins by 6 manning has19.
• Week 17 - loses by 29 manning has 0.

Now with keeping in mind the fact that we are debating whether or not Manning won the championship for Matt we can establish a few things. First of all we can disregard his losses, Manning’s bye week, and the weeks he won by more than Manning’s total. This takes care of weeks 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, and 17. This leaves weeks 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 13, 14, and 16. Now, Matt finished with a 12-4-1 record and I was in second place with an 11-6 record. This means he would have to have 2 wins taken away to lose his title. I lost to him during Manning’s bye week and beat him in week 15 so my win total stays the same regardless. The 3rd place finisher, Shaun, had a final record of 10-6-1 which may have been effected if First did not have Manning.

One last thing before we look at the weeks. Aside from Manning, there were 8 QBs who averaged over 14 points per game in 2004. Those QBs were Culpepper, McNabb, Favre, Delhomme, Brees, Bulger, Plummer, and Green.

Now, in Week 1 First only needed 12 points from his QB for the victory. In Week 3 he only needed 14. Week 4 he only needed 11. Week 5 may have been different; he tied with Manning scoring 20 points. I think a number of the QBs in the league could have scored 20 or maybe more but let’s give him the loss for argument's sake. Week 7 he needed 17 for the win. Week 13 he needed 18. Week 14 he needed 9 and in week 16 he needed 14. The highest number he needed during those matches was 18 which is not out of the question for a number of QBs. Keep in mind that 8 other QBs averaged more than 14 points last year, you can make the argument that it was possible for those 8 and maybe a handful of others to lead him to victory in weeks 1, 3, 4, 14, and 16. That leaves weeks 7 and 13 where he needed 17 and 18 respectively. Now how many QBs in the league could potentially put up 2 TDs and 240 yards? That’s all he would have needed those 2 weeks.

Personally I think Matt wins without the tie in Week 5 (which gives him a 12-5 record and Shaun an 11-6 mark) and without Peyton Manning. With the exception of the tie in Week 5 there was never a win for Da Bears in 2004 where Matt started Manning and needed over 18 points from him. A number of QBs could have got him those 18 points.

Adam LaBarre,
PoFFO